Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.359643 1.412796 1.467597 1.528474 1.594395 1.663831 1.742775
2026-01-04 1.306796 1.379444 1.456697 1.545444 1.645194 1.754598 1.884719
2026-01-11 1.253875 1.338664 1.430883 1.539518 1.665189 1.807539 1.983291
2026-01-18 1.214808 1.309237 1.413903 1.539894 1.689379 1.863715 2.086611
2026-01-25 1.165975 1.265401 1.377176 1.513945 1.679434 1.876950 2.136783
2026-02-01 1.132966 1.237684 1.356997 1.505313 1.688255 1.911709 2.214386
2026-02-08 1.102735 1.211533 1.336950 1.495043 1.693435 1.940943 2.285532
2026-02-15 1.075027 1.187009 1.317436 1.483906 1.696104 1.966058 2.351777
2026-02-22 1.057212 1.173376 1.310133 1.486982 1.716195 2.014037 2.452041
2026-03-01 1.026556 1.143118 1.281290 1.461491 1.697616 2.008802 2.475494
2026-03-08 1.002181 1.119692 1.259962 1.444489 1.689020 2.016058 2.516831
2026-03-15 0.981735 1.100419 1.243060 1.432318 1.685951 2.030242 2.568847
2026-03-22 0.972749 1.095402 1.244259 1.444218 1.716621 2.094640 2.705555
2026-03-29 0.967325 1.094509 1.250437 1.462625 1.756779 2.174881 2.875608
2026-04-05 0.952770 1.081660 1.240813 1.459395 1.766256 2.210160 2.974838
2026-04-12 0.941196 1.072202 1.235161 1.461125 1.782572 2.256381 3.097431
2026-04-19 0.920037 1.050011 1.212320 1.438540 1.762658 2.245326 3.116560
2026-04-26 0.906236 1.036900 1.200967 1.431295 1.764662 2.268457 3.200307
2026-05-03 0.892413 1.023424 1.188742 1.422350 1.763609 2.286394 3.275905
2026-05-10 0.878850 1.009976 1.176187 1.412475 1.760621 2.300792 3.345946
2026-05-17 0.870984 1.003695 1.172924 1.415436 1.776890 2.347503 3.485826
2026-05-24 0.853362 0.984358 1.151755 1.392337 1.752413 2.324464 3.478732
2026-05-31 0.839302 0.969444 1.136239 1.376907 1.739193 2.319843 3.510365